Joe Conley Tagged statistics Random thoughts on technology, books, golf, and everything else that interests me http://www.josephpconley.com/name/statistics 2014 PGA Championship Preview <p>The <a href="http://www.pga.com/pgachampionship/">2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club</a> starts tomorrow amid several interesting storylines. Will Tiger be healthy enough to play (and if so, will he tell us before our fantasy draft starts)? Will Rory continue his dominance and retain his World Number 1 status, or will Adam Scott parlay his strong majors performance and regain the top spot? Or will a past champion like Padraig Harrington or Y.E. Yang reclaim Glory’s Last Shot?</p> <p>As an administrator (and participant) of a Golf Majors pool, I like to know the <a href="http://www.swingstats.com/majors/draft">world rankings and betting odds for the field</a> to help inform the draft and facilitate automated picks. For this last major, I also wanted to know how the field has performed in this year’s prior majors. Here’s how they’ve fared in 2014 (must have played in at least one major).</p> <table class="ui striped compact table"> <thead> <tr> <th>Player</th> <th>The Masters</th> <th>U.S. Open</th> <th>British Open</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr><td>Rickie Fowler</td> <td>T5</td> <td>T2</td> <td>T2</td></tr> <tr><td>Adam Scott</td> <td>T14</td> <td>T9</td> <td>T5</td></tr> <tr><td>Jim Furyk</td> <td>T14</td> <td>T12</td> <td>4</td></tr> <tr><td>Rory McIlroy</td> <td>T8</td> <td>T23</td> <td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Walker</td> <td>T8</td> <td>T9</td> <td>T26</td></tr> <tr><td>Justin Rose</td> <td>T14</td> <td>T12</td> <td>T23</td></tr> <tr><td>Jordan Spieth</td> <td>T2</td> <td>T17</td> <td>T36</td></tr> <tr><td>Henrik Stenson</td> <td>T14</td> <td>T4</td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Chris Kirk</td> <td>T14</td> <td>T28</td> <td>T19</td></tr> <tr><td>Matt Kuchar</td> <td>T5</td> <td>T12</td> <td>T54</td></tr> <tr><td>Jason Day</td> <td>T21</td> <td>T4</td> <td>T58</td></tr> <tr><td>Francesco Molinari</td> <td>50</td> <td>T23</td> <td>T15</td></tr> <tr><td>Louis Oosthuizen</td> <td>25</td> <td>T40</td> <td>T36</td></tr> <tr><td>Martin Kaymer</td> <td>T31</td> <td>1</td> <td>70</td></tr> <tr><td>Brandt Snedeker</td> <td>T37</td> <td>T9</td> <td>T58</td></tr> <tr><td>Bill Haas</td> <td>T21</td> <td>T35</td> <td>T51</td></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Stadler</td> <td>T8</td> <td>T63</td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Stewart Cink</td> <td>T14</td> <td>T54</td> <td>T47</td></tr> <tr><td>Gary Woodland</td> <td>T26</td> <td>T52</td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Keegan Bradley</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T4</td> <td>T19</td></tr> <tr><td>Thomas Bjorn</td> <td>T8</td> <td></td> <td>T26</td></tr> <tr><td>Graeme McDowell</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T28</td> <td>T9</td></tr> <tr><td>Victor Dubuisson</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T28</td> <td>T9</td></tr> <tr><td>Sergio Garcia</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T35</td> <td>T2</td></tr> <tr><td>Ian Poulter</td> <td>T21</td> <td>T17</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Stephen Gallacher</td> <td>T34</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T15</td></tr> <tr><td>Phil Mickelson</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T28</td> <td>T23</td></tr> <tr><td>Steve Stricker</td> <td>T31</td> <td>T21</td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>Brendon Todd</td> <td></td> <td>T17</td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Hunter Mahan</td> <td>T26</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T32</td></tr> <tr><td>Billy Horschel</td> <td>T37</td> <td>T23</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Ryan Moore</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T48</td> <td>T12</td></tr> <tr><td>Brendon de Jonge</td> <td>T37</td> <td>T28</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>John Senden</td> <td>T8</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T58</td></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Na</td> <td></td> <td>T12</td> <td>T54</td></tr> <tr><td>Darren Clarke</td> <td>T44</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T26</td></tr> <tr><td>Brooks Koepka</td> <td></td> <td>T4</td> <td>T67</td></tr> <tr><td>Hideki Matsuyama</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T35</td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Thongchai Jaidee</td> <td>T37</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Zach Johnson</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T40</td> <td>T47</td></tr> <tr><td>Russell Henley</td> <td>T31</td> <td>T60</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Streelman</td> <td>T42</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T54</td></tr> <tr><td>Paul Casey</td> <td></td> <td>T56</td> <td>T47</td></tr> <tr><td>Thorbjorn Olesen</td> <td>T44</td> <td></td> <td>T64</td></tr> <tr><td>Bubba Watson</td> <td>1</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Jonas Blixt</td> <td>T2</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Erik Compton</td> <td></td> <td>T2</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Miguel Angel Jimenez</td> <td>4</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Marc Leishman</td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td> <td>T5</td></tr> <tr><td>Charl Schwartzel</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T7</td></tr> <tr><td>Lee Westwood</td> <td>7</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Edoardo Molinari</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T7</td></tr> <tr><td>Shane Lowry</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T9</td></tr> <tr><td>Robert Karlsson</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T12</td></tr> <tr><td>Jamie Donaldson</td> <td>T14</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>J.B. Holmes</td> <td></td> <td>T17</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>George Coetzee</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>18</td></tr> <tr><td>Angel Cabrera</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T19</td></tr> <tr><td>Matteo Manassero</td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td> <td>T19</td></tr> <tr><td>Chris Wood</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T23</td></tr> <tr><td>Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano</td> <td>T26</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Joost Luiten</td> <td>T26</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Ben Martin</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T26</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Harman</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T26</td></tr> <tr><td>Steven Bowditch</td> <td>T26</td> <td></td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>Kenny Perry</td> <td></td> <td>T28</td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>David Hearn</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T32</td></tr> <tr><td>K.J. Choi</td> <td>T34</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Patrick Reed</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T35</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Ernie Els</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T35</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Branden Grace</td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td> <td>T36</td></tr> <tr><td>Vijay Singh</td> <td>T37</td> <td></td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>Marc Warren</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Koumei Oda</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T39</td></tr> <tr><td>Nick Watney</td> <td>T44</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Webb Simpson</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T45</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Danny Willett</td> <td></td> <td>T45</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Harris English</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T48</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Jason Dufner</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T51</td></tr> <tr><td>Tom Watson</td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td> <td>T51</td></tr> <tr><td>Seung Yul Noh</td> <td></td> <td>T52</td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>Matt Jones</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T54</td></tr> <tr><td>Ryan Palmer</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T58</td></tr> <tr><td>Luke Donald</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>T64</td></tr> <tr><td>Boo Weekley</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>66</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Charley Hoffman</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>T67</td></tr> <tr><td>Tiger Woods</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>69</td></tr> <tr><td>Matt Every</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>71</td></tr> <tr><td>Roberto Castro</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Y.E. Yang</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Graham Delaet</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Pablo Larrazabal</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Bernd Wiesberger</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Hyung-Sung Kim</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Scott Stallings</td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Ross Fisher</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Padraig Harrington</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Mikko Ilonen</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Sterne</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Geoff Ogilvy</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>Shawn Stefani</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Chesson Hadley</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Stuard</td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>Chris Stroud</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Cameron Tringale</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Fredrik Jacobson</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Kiradech Aphibarnrat</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Rafael Cabrera-Bello</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Anirban Lahiri</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Tim Clark</td> <td>CUT</td> <td></td> <td></td></tr> <tr><td>George McNeill</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Tommy Fleetwood</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Brendan Steele</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>John Daly</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> <tr><td>Ryo Ishikawa</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>CUT</td></tr> </tbody> <caption class="text-left"><b>Best Majors Performers in 2014</b></caption> </table> <p>No big surprises here. Rickie Fowler has been sniffing at a major championship all year, falling short to two dominant performances by Kaymer and McIlory. Some other folks have been quietly consistent, like Jimmy Walker and Chris Kirk (haven’t heard their names on the Golf Channel all week). I was surprised to see normally consistent players turn in poor performances for the year (looking at you Jason Dufner and Angel Cabrera).</p> <p>Hope this information helps your golf handicapping/gambling purposes! If you have any other suggestions for stats/blog posts please let me know!</p> Wed, 06 Aug 2014 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.josephpconley.com/2014/08/06/pga-championship-preview.html http://www.josephpconley.com/2014/08/06/pga-championship-preview.html Accenture Match Play Statistics <p>February madness is here! The <a href="http://www.worldgolfchampionships.com/accenture-match-play-championship.html">Accenture Match Play Championship</a> starts today, and although the usual big names of Tiger, Phil, and Adam Scott are absent this year, there still promises to be some drama. Can Matt Kuchar become the first player not named Tiger to go back-to-back? Will Jimmy Walker improve upon his obscene winning percentage this year? Will past Ryder Cup emotions fuel players to victory (looking at you Mr. Poulter)? We’ll find out.</p> <p>The other source of drama is due to the vagaries of the match play format. Underdogs regularly upset favorites, and only one person has won the event as a number one seed (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WGC-Accenture_Match_Play_Championship">Tiger</a>). This makes completing a bracket the ultimate exercise in futility. While I’m sure <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24416823/warren-buffett-dan-gilbert-offering-1-billion-for-perfect-tourney-bracket">Warren Buffett’s billion dollar NCAA wager</a> is very safe at odds of 1 in 9.2 quintillion, I’d imagine a similar wager on this tournament would be even safer (though statistically it’s the same odds).</p> <p>Anyways, I’ll be looking at some random statistics as the tournament progresses. One such stat is average holes played per match. If you fill out your bracket on <a href="http://fantasy.pgatour.com/">pgatour.com</a>, you’re asked to put in a tiebreaker of total holes played by the champion of the tournament. A champion will have played six matches in total. For each match, a winner can play less than 18 holes, the full 18, or more than 18 if still tied (here’s a good primer on <a href="http://golf.about.com/od/beginners/a/matchplayscore.htm">match play scoring</a> for the uninitiated). I took a rough guess that on average, a match ends after the 16th hole. But I wanted to be sure (I’m in a money league for my bracket, can’t hold anything back). So naturally, I turned to programming.</p> <p>Here’s a very simply <a href="https://github.com/josephpconley/scala/blob/master/scrape/src/main/scala/com/josephpconley/golf/MatchPlay.scala">program to gather data on past matches</a>. This parses out the holes played for roughly 2,000 matches in this event from 2005 to present. The result was that the average holes played per match is 16.64116095. For the tiebreaker, you’d multiply this by 6 to get (roughly) 100.</p> <p>That’s it for now, I’ll try to dig deeper and come up with more interesting stats. If you have any suggestions feel free to comment!</p> Wed, 19 Feb 2014 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.josephpconley.com/2014/02/19/accenture-match-play-stats.html http://www.josephpconley.com/2014/02/19/accenture-match-play-stats.html